Leslie Fox

The Gardner Report | Q2 2018

by Leslie Fox

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The following analysis of the Western Washington real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere Agent.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The Washington State economy added 83,900 new jobs over the past 12 months, representing an annual growth rate of 2.5%. This is a slowdown from the last quarter, but employment growth remains well above the national rate of 1.6%. Employment gains continue to be robust in the private sector, which was up by 2.8%. The public sector (government) grew by a more modest 1.1%.

The strongest growth sectors were Retail Trade and Construction, which both rose by 4.8%. Significant growth was also seen in the Education & Health Services and Information sectors, which rose by 3.9% and 3.4%, respectively.

The State’s unemployment rate was 4.7%, down from 4.8% a year ago. Washington State will continue adding jobs for the balance of the year and I anticipate total job growth for 2018 will be around 80,000, representing a total employment growth rate of 2.4%.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

There were 23,209 home sales during the second quarter of 2018. This is a drop of 2.3% compared to the same period a year ago
Clallam County saw sales rise the fastest relative to the same period a year ago, with an increase of 12.6%. Jefferson County also saw significant gains in sales at 11.1%.
The number of homes for sale last quarter was down by a nominal 0.3% when compared to the second quarter of 2017, but up by 66% when compared to the first quarter of this year. Much has been mentioned regarding the growth in listings, but it was not region-wide. King County saw a massive 31.7% increase in inventory, though all but three of the other counties covered in this report saw the number of listings drop compared to a year ago.
The takeaway from this data is that while some counties are seeing growth in listings — which will translate into sales down the road — the market is still out of balance.

HOME PRICES

As inventory is still fairly scarce, growth in home prices continues to trend well above the long-term average. Prices in Western Washington rose 12.2% over last year to $526,398.
Home prices continue to trend higher across Western Washington, but the pace of growth has started to slow. This should please would-be buyers. The spring market came late but inventory growth in the expensive King County market will give buyers more choices and likely lead to a slowing down of price growth as bidding wars continue to taper.
When compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was strongest in Mason County, which was up 17.4%. Eleven other counties experienced double-digit price growth.
Mortgage rates, which had been rising significantly since the start of the year, have leveled off over the past month. I believe rising rates are likely the reason that inventory levels are rising, as would-be sellers believe that this could be the right time to cash out. That said, the slowing in rate increases has led buyers to believe that rates will not jump soon, which gives them a little more breathing room. I do not expect to see any possible slowdown in demand until mortgage rates breach the 5% mark.

DAYS ON MARKET

The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by seven days compared to the same quarter of 2017.

King County continues to be the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of only 13 days to sell. Every county in the region other than Clallam saw the length of time it took to sell a home drop when compared to the same period a year ago.

Across the entire region, it took an average of 41 days to sell a home in the second quarter of this year. This is down from 48 days in the second quarter of 2017 and down by 20 days when compared to the first quarter of 2018.

Across the entire region, it took an average of 41 days to sell a home in the second quarter of this year. This is down from 48 days in the second quarter of 2017 and down by 20 days when compared to the first quarter of 2018.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s
real estate market using housing inventory, price
gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. For the second quarter of 2018, I have moved the needle very slightly towards buyers, but it remains firmly a seller’s market. This shift is a function of price growth tapering very slightly, as well as the expectation that we should see more homes come on the market as we move through the balance of the year.

Mr. Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

Windermere Foundation Donates Nearly $1 Million During First Half of 2018

by Leslie Fox

Thanks to the generosity of Windermere agents, staff, franchise owners, and the community, the Windermere Foundation has proudly donated a total of $920,351 so far this year to non-profit organizations that provide services to low-income and homeless families. This brings the total amount of money that the Windermere Foundation has raised since 1989 to over $36 million.

Each Windermere office has its own Windermere Foundation fund account that they use to make donations to organizations in their local communities. One such organization in Boise, Idaho is CATCH (Charitable Assistance to Community’s Homeless), whose vision is to end homelessness for families by providing programs that work with local resources to provide stable housing, inspire financial independence, and build on a family’s strength and resilience.

The Windermere Caldwell and Boise Valley offices have worked with CATCH for over six years, with funding support from the Windermere Foundation. These donations help pay for programs that provide hope and support to many families in Idaho’s Treasure Valley…families like Andrea’s. *

Before CATCH, Andrea had come out of an abusive relationship, leaving her to raise her three young children on her own. When they became homeless, they spent six months living out of her car, waiting until a more stable living situation became available. Finally, the call came from Andrea’s case manager that they had been accepted into the CATCH program. Through the program, Andrea had access to resources to help her find housing. After about a month, she was able to find the perfect home for her family.

During her few months in the CATCH program, Andrea said she not only gained housing, but also so much more. “I’ve gained a bigger support system, more love, and knowledge. I’ve gained more strength and responsibility. I learned how to budget, worked at bettering my career, and I didn’t feel alone anymore. But most of all, CATCH has allowed me to put my pride away at times I didn’t need it and accept what I do need, and that is LOVE. I thank the CATCH program for helping me and my family grow stronger.”

Generous donations to the Windermere Foundation over the years have enabled Windermere offices to continue to support local non-profits like CATCH. If you’d like to help support programs in your community, please click on the Donate button.

To learn more about the Windermere Foundation, visit WindermereFoundation.com.